The Herald

Issue date: 1/23/08 Section: Feature

Barack Obama

Hillary Clinton

Mitt Romney

By E. B. Allen
Contributing Writer

As the nation begins to focus more media coverage on the upcoming primaries, it seems like each state and each caucus/primary has a huge impact on the candidates and each is crucial in determining the outcome of the presidency. But with all of the media hype it's sometimes difficult to figure out the actual importance of these primaries and establish the weight each carries in relation to the candidates' campaigns.
Before diving into the results of the caucuses thus far, it's a good idea to become familiar with the purpose of the state primaries and the procedure surrounding the nomination and election processes. The United States actually conducts two separate votes for the Presidency: the popular vote comprised of ballots cast by U.S. citizens and the Electoral College vote comprised of votes by the Presidential Electors. The President is elected solely by the Electoral College votes, however, the popular votes are the guideline by which the Presidential Electors cast their ballots. Each state has a set number of Presidential Electors who are elected by voters on the same day as the Presidential Election. The Electoral College meets 41 days after the popular vote to cast their electoral ballots. By this time, the popular votes of each state have already been tallied and, thus, the Presidential Electors are aware of which candidate won the majority vote in the state when they place their electoral votes. While the popular vote generally matches the Electoral College vote, there are times, such as in the 2000 Presidential Election, in which the winner of the popular vote, Al Gore, did not take Office because George W. Bush won the Electoral College vote.
As with most all presidential races, there are many candidates from both of the major parties vying for Office. If an election were to occur today with all of eight major candidates on the ballot, votes would likely be spread out to the point where no one candidate would have a significant majority. Additionally, the Presidential Electors of each state would have a harder time determining the majority consensus of the state. In order to avoid such dilemmas both the Republican Party (GOP) and the Democratic Party (DNC) hold primaries and caucuses in each of the fifty states to discover which of the several candidates running in their Party is the most popular amongst voters. After the primaries and caucuses are concluded, the GOP and DNC hold national conventions where a set number of delegates from each state convene to vote for the Presidential Nomination. The popular votes from the caucuses and primaries determine the way in which delegates from each state will vote when nominating the candidate for their Party. Most states primary results are legally binding: the delegates from each state are required to vote in accordance with the winner of the primary popular vote.
From a Party Nomination perspective, the early primaries and caucuses do not carry as much weight for the candidates because the early states (Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, and Michigan) don't have a large numbers of delegates and, thus, votes. The early primaries and caucuses are most significant to the candidates because they generally influence the voting of later primaries and caucuses. The results also provide the first result of campaign strategies and often serve as catalysts for drastic reorganization in campaign tactics. For example, a candidate may have been heavily advertising his proposals for tax reform only to learn that the voters from an early state primary are more interested in candidates who addressed healthcare reform. The candidate can shift the advertising to concentrate on healthcare in order to win future primaries. The most important date for candidates is February 5th known as "Super Tuesday" because 21 states, including the large delegate states of California, New York, Georgia, Illinois, will hold primaries. "Super Tuesday" may very well determine the Nomination for each Party if a candidate wins the primary in many of the larger states.
Thus far, the results of the early primaries have varied from state to state and have not provided a clear popular candidate for either Party. There are currently eight major candidates running for President: Hillary Clinton (D), Mitt Romney (R) , John Edwards (D), Fred Thompson (R), John McCain (R), Barack Obama (D), Mike Huckabee (R), and Rudy Guiliani (R). In the Iowa Caucus, Democrat Obama beat out Clinton and Edwards by clenching 38% of the vote and Republican Huckabee won over Thompson, McCain, and Romney with 34%. The Iowa results shocked many political analysts and voters throughout the nation. The Clinton campaign had a huge reorganization after the loss and went on to win the Democrat vote in the Michigan primary with 55%. A fierce battle between McCain and Romney left Romney with 39% win for the Republican vote. New Hampshire proved to be a close call on the Democrat vote where Clinton's 39% barely edged out Obama's 37% and also with the Republican vote between McCain's 37% versus Romney's 32%. Wyoming held it's Republican caucus and Romney clearly won with 67% of the vote.


E.B. Allen is a senior political science major in the Barbara Jordan - Mickey LeLand School of Public Affairs and is a staff writer for the TSU Herald.

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